Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
2026-07-06 · Nationals Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on 2026-07-06. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 4.04, Washington Nationals 4.19. Model win probability: Washington Nationals 52%, Houston Astros 48%. Projected total runs: 8.23.
Houston Astros
4.0
Predicted runs
48% to win
Washington Nationals
4.2
Predicted runs
52% to win
Projected total: 8.2 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.