Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
2026-04-28 · 06:35 PM ET · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on 2026-04-28. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 5.25, Baltimore Orioles 5.62. Model win probability: Baltimore Orioles 54%, Houston Astros 46%. Projected total runs: 10.86.
Houston Astros
5.3
Predicted runs
46% to win
Baltimore Orioles
5.6
Predicted runs
54% to win
Projected total: 10.9 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.