Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
2026-04-30 · 12:35 PM ET · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on 2026-04-30. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 5.79, Baltimore Orioles 6.72. Model win probability: Baltimore Orioles 57%, Houston Astros 43%. Projected total runs: 12.51.
Houston Astros
5.8
Predicted runs
43% to win
Baltimore Orioles
6.7
Predicted runs
57% to win
Projected total: 12.5 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.