Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
2026-08-09 · 08:20 PM ET · Petco Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at San Diego Padres at Petco Park on 2026-08-09. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 4.86, San Diego Padres 4.24. Model win probability: San Diego Padres 44%, Houston Astros 56%. Projected total runs: 9.1.
Houston Astros
4.9
Predicted runs
56% to win
San Diego Padres
4.2
Predicted runs
44% to win
Projected total: 9.1 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.