Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
2026-05-01 · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-05-01. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 6.24, Boston Red Sox 5.38. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 45%, Houston Astros 55%. Projected total runs: 11.62.
Houston Astros
6.2
Predicted runs
55% to win
Boston Red Sox
5.4
Predicted runs
45% to win
Projected total: 11.6 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.