Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
2026-05-02 · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-05-02. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 7.17, Boston Red Sox 4.48. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 30%, Houston Astros 70%. Projected total runs: 11.65.
Houston Astros
7.2
Predicted runs
70% to win
Boston Red Sox
4.5
Predicted runs
30% to win
Projected total: 11.7 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.