Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
2026-05-08 · 06:10 PM ET · Great American Ball Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-05-08. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 4.03, Cincinnati Reds 5.86. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 66%, Houston Astros 34%. Projected total runs: 9.89.
Houston Astros
4.0
Predicted runs
34% to win
Cincinnati Reds
5.9
Predicted runs
66% to win
Projected total: 9.9 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.