Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
2026-05-09 · Great American Ball Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-05-09. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 4.36, Cincinnati Reds 4.92. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 56%, Houston Astros 44%. Projected total runs: 9.28.
Houston Astros
4.4
Predicted runs
44% to win
Cincinnati Reds
4.9
Predicted runs
56% to win
Projected total: 9.3 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.