Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
2026-05-10 · Great American Ball Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-05-10. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 4.44, Cincinnati Reds 5.28. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 58%, Houston Astros 42%. Projected total runs: 9.72.
Houston Astros
4.4
Predicted runs
42% to win
Cincinnati Reds
5.3
Predicted runs
58% to win
Projected total: 9.7 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.