Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies
2026-05-05 · Citizens Bank Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on 2026-05-05. Predicted final score: Athletics 6.61, Philadelphia Phillies 3.73. Model win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 26%, Athletics 74%. Projected total runs: 10.34.
Athletics
6.6
Predicted runs
74% to win
Philadelphia Phillies
3.7
Predicted runs
26% to win
Projected total: 10.3 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.