MLB / Games

Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros

2026-08-04

Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros on 2026-08-04. Predicted final score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.38, Houston Astros 4.89. Model win probability: Houston Astros 67%, Toronto Blue Jays 33%. Projected total runs: 8.27.

Toronto Blue Jays

3.4

Predicted runs

33% to win

Houston Astros

4.9

Predicted runs

67% to win

Projected total: 8.3 runs

Tonight's Edges

Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.

Mongoose Bets — Sports Betting Analytics & Betting Intelligence

Mongoose Bets runs 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per MLB game to expose where sportsbook lines disagree with the model. We don't sell picks — we show the math behind every edge.

Today's MLB game predictions, player-prop projections, NRFI picks, home run odds, batter-vs-pitcher matchups, bullpen fatigue, ballpark factors, and umpire tendencies — all derived from the same simulation, updated every morning.

Beyond baseball: NFL weekly game simulations, player props and DFS; college football model-vs-market on every FBS game with team ratings; WNBA game and prop simulations; and PGA Tour outrights, head-to-heads and make-cut probability.

Browse Mongoose Bets:

This site requires JavaScript for the interactive simulation views. Enable JavaScript to access live edges, distribution charts, and the full Mongoose Bets dashboard.

21+ · For entertainment purposes only · Not professional betting advice · Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700