Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres
2026-07-11 · Petco Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres at Petco Park on 2026-07-11. Predicted final score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.38, San Diego Padres 3.17. Model win probability: San Diego Padres 47%, Toronto Blue Jays 53%. Projected total runs: 6.55.
Toronto Blue Jays
3.4
Predicted runs
53% to win
San Diego Padres
3.2
Predicted runs
47% to win
Projected total: 6.5 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.