Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
2026-05-04 · Busch Stadium
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on 2026-05-04. Predicted final score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.67, St. Louis Cardinals 5.75. Model win probability: St. Louis Cardinals 51%, Milwaukee Brewers 49%. Projected total runs: 11.42.
Milwaukee Brewers
5.7
Predicted runs
49% to win
St. Louis Cardinals
5.8
Predicted runs
51% to win
Projected total: 11.4 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.