Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
2026-07-04 · Chase Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on 2026-07-04. Predicted final score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.42, Arizona Diamondbacks 3.12. Model win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 35%, Milwaukee Brewers 65%. Projected total runs: 7.54.
Milwaukee Brewers
4.4
Predicted runs
65% to win
Arizona Diamondbacks
3.1
Predicted runs
35% to win
Projected total: 7.5 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.