Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-07-11 · 12:05 PM ET · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-07-11. Predicted final score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.47, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.02. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 47%, Milwaukee Brewers 53%. Projected total runs: 10.49.
Milwaukee Brewers
5.5
Predicted runs
53% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
5.0
Predicted runs
47% to win
Projected total: 10.5 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.