Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
2026-07-04 · 08:08 PM ET · Wrigley Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on 2026-07-04. Predicted final score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.93, Chicago Cubs 3.78. Model win probability: Chicago Cubs 49%, St. Louis Cardinals 51%. Projected total runs: 7.71.
St. Louis Cardinals
3.9
Predicted runs
51% to win
Chicago Cubs
3.8
Predicted runs
49% to win
Projected total: 7.7 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.