Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
2026-07-17 · Chase Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on 2026-07-17. Predicted final score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.72, Arizona Diamondbacks 3.65. Model win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 49%, St. Louis Cardinals 51%. Projected total runs: 7.37.
St. Louis Cardinals
3.7
Predicted runs
51% to win
Arizona Diamondbacks
3.6
Predicted runs
49% to win
Projected total: 7.4 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.