Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
2026-05-07 · Petco Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres at Petco Park on 2026-05-07. Predicted final score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.4, San Diego Padres 4.09. Model win probability: San Diego Padres 47%, St. Louis Cardinals 53%. Projected total runs: 8.49.
St. Louis Cardinals
4.4
Predicted runs
53% to win
San Diego Padres
4.1
Predicted runs
47% to win
Projected total: 8.5 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.