Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
2026-05-09 · Petco Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres at Petco Park on 2026-05-09. Predicted final score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.99, San Diego Padres 4.5. Model win probability: San Diego Padres 45%, St. Louis Cardinals 55%. Projected total runs: 9.49.
St. Louis Cardinals
5.0
Predicted runs
55% to win
San Diego Padres
4.5
Predicted runs
45% to win
Projected total: 9.5 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.