Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-04-28 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-04-28. Predicted final score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.98, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.48. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 56%, St. Louis Cardinals 44%. Projected total runs: 10.46.
St. Louis Cardinals
5.0
Predicted runs
44% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
5.5
Predicted runs
56% to win
Projected total: 10.5 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.