Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-04-30 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-04-30. Predicted final score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.36, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.87. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 55%, St. Louis Cardinals 45%. Projected total runs: 9.23.
St. Louis Cardinals
4.4
Predicted runs
45% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.9
Predicted runs
55% to win
Projected total: 9.2 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.