Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
2026-08-17 · 1:40 PM ET · Great American Ball Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-08-17. Predicted final score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.14, Cincinnati Reds 4.38. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 43%, St. Louis Cardinals 57%. Projected total runs: 9.52.
St. Louis Cardinals
5.1
Predicted runs
57% to win
Cincinnati Reds
4.4
Predicted runs
43% to win
Projected total: 9.5 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.