Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
2026-07-11 · Great American Ball Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-07-11. Predicted final score: Chicago Cubs 4.87, Cincinnati Reds 3.74. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 38%, Chicago Cubs 62%. Projected total runs: 8.61.
Chicago Cubs
4.9
Predicted runs
62% to win
Cincinnati Reds
3.7
Predicted runs
38% to win
Projected total: 8.6 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.