Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
2026-07-09 · Petco Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres at Petco Park on 2026-07-09. Predicted final score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.12, San Diego Padres 3.83. Model win probability: San Diego Padres 48%, Arizona Diamondbacks 52%. Projected total runs: 7.95.
Arizona Diamondbacks
4.1
Predicted runs
52% to win
San Diego Padres
3.8
Predicted runs
48% to win
Projected total: 8.0 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.