Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-07-27 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-07-27. Predicted final score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.3, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.75. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 45%, Arizona Diamondbacks 55%. Projected total runs: 10.05.
Arizona Diamondbacks
5.3
Predicted runs
55% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.8
Predicted runs
45% to win
Projected total: 10.1 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.