Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-07-28 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-07-28. Predicted final score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.56, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.2. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 48%, Arizona Diamondbacks 52%. Projected total runs: 8.76.
Arizona Diamondbacks
4.6
Predicted runs
52% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.2
Predicted runs
48% to win
Projected total: 8.8 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.