Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
2026-07-28 · 1:40 PM ET · Great American Ball Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-07-28. Predicted final score: Cleveland Guardians 4.27, Cincinnati Reds 4.47. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 54%, Cleveland Guardians 46%. Projected total runs: 8.74.
Cleveland Guardians
4.3
Predicted runs
46% to win
Cincinnati Reds
4.5
Predicted runs
54% to win
Projected total: 8.7 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.