Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
2026-05-04 · 07:40 PM ET · Kauffman Stadium
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on 2026-05-04. Predicted final score: Cleveland Guardians 3.86, Kansas City Royals 5.89. Model win probability: Kansas City Royals 69%, Cleveland Guardians 31%. Projected total runs: 9.75.
Cleveland Guardians
3.9
Predicted runs
31% to win
Kansas City Royals
5.9
Predicted runs
69% to win
Projected total: 9.8 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.