Games, projections, and research

Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

2026-09-14 · Chase Field

Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on 2026-09-14. Predicted final score: Miami Marlins 5.87, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.06. Model win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 42%, Miami Marlins 58%. Projected total runs: 10.93.

Miami Marlins

5.9

Predicted runs

58% to win

Arizona Diamondbacks

5.1

Predicted runs

42% to win

Projected total: 10.9 runs

Tonight's Edges

Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.

Mongoose Bets — Sports Betting Analytics & Betting Intelligence

Mongoose Bets runs 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per MLB game to expose where sportsbook lines disagree with the model. We don't sell picks — we show the math behind every edge.

Today's MLB game predictions, player-prop projections, NRFI picks, home run odds, batter-vs-pitcher matchups, bullpen fatigue, ballpark factors, and umpire tendencies — all derived from the same simulation, updated every morning.

Beyond baseball: NFL weekly game simulations, player props and DFS; college football model-vs-market on every FBS game with team ratings; WNBA game and prop simulations; and PGA Tour outrights, head-to-heads and make-cut probability.

Browse Mongoose Bets:

This site requires JavaScript for the interactive simulation views. Enable JavaScript to access live edges, distribution charts, and the full Mongoose Bets dashboard.

21+ · For entertainment purposes only · Not professional betting advice · Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700