Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
2026-07-30 · Citi Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Miami Marlins at New York Mets at Citi Field on 2026-07-30. Predicted final score: Miami Marlins 3.78, New York Mets 3.45. Model win probability: New York Mets 47%, Miami Marlins 53%. Projected total runs: 7.22.
Miami Marlins
3.8
Predicted runs
53% to win
New York Mets
3.5
Predicted runs
47% to win
Projected total: 7.2 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.
