Mongoose Bets logo - Advanced MLB Analytics and Betting Intelligence platform
Mongoose Bets

Odds updated 11:03 AM ET

Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

2026-07-30 · Citi Field

Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Miami Marlins at New York Mets at Citi Field on 2026-07-30. Predicted final score: Miami Marlins 3.78, New York Mets 3.45. Model win probability: New York Mets 47%, Miami Marlins 53%. Projected total runs: 7.22.

Miami Marlins
3.8
Predicted runs
53% to win
New York Mets
3.5
Predicted runs
47% to win
Projected total: 7.2 runs

Tonight's Edges

Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.