Mongoose Bets logo - Advanced MLB Analytics and Betting Intelligence platform
Mongoose Bets

Odds updated 9:31 AM ET

Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

2026-07-31 · Citi Field

Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Miami Marlins at New York Mets at Citi Field on 2026-07-31. Predicted final score: Miami Marlins 4.98, New York Mets 4.24. Model win probability: New York Mets 43%, Miami Marlins 57%. Projected total runs: 9.22.

Miami Marlins
5.0
Predicted runs
57% to win
New York Mets
4.2
Predicted runs
43% to win
Projected total: 9.2 runs

Tonight's Edges

Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.