Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
2026-08-17 · Citizens Bank Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on 2026-08-17. Predicted final score: Miami Marlins 4.26, Philadelphia Phillies 5.57. Model win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 65%, Miami Marlins 35%. Projected total runs: 9.83.
Miami Marlins
4.3
Predicted runs
35% to win
Philadelphia Phillies
5.6
Predicted runs
65% to win
Projected total: 9.8 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.