Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
2026-05-16 · Tropicana Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on 2026-05-16. Predicted final score: Miami Marlins 4.37, Tampa Bay Rays 2.95. Model win probability: Tampa Bay Rays 35%, Miami Marlins 65%. Projected total runs: 7.32.
Miami Marlins
4.4
Predicted runs
65% to win
Tampa Bay Rays
3.0
Predicted runs
35% to win
Projected total: 7.3 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.