Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
2026-05-17 · 12:15 PM ET · Tropicana Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on 2026-05-17. Predicted final score: Miami Marlins 4.4, Tampa Bay Rays 2.58. Model win probability: Tampa Bay Rays 31%, Miami Marlins 69%. Projected total runs: 6.98.
Miami Marlins
4.4
Predicted runs
69% to win
Tampa Bay Rays
2.6
Predicted runs
31% to win
Projected total: 7.0 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.