Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
2026-08-14 · Great American Ball Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-08-14. Predicted final score: Miami Marlins 4.7, Cincinnati Reds 4.04. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 45%, Miami Marlins 55%. Projected total runs: 8.74.
Miami Marlins
4.7
Predicted runs
55% to win
Cincinnati Reds
4.0
Predicted runs
45% to win
Projected total: 8.7 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.