Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
2026-05-10 · Chase Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on 2026-05-10. Predicted final score: New York Mets 3.74, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.4. Model win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 58%, New York Mets 42%. Projected total runs: 8.14.
New York Mets
3.7
Predicted runs
42% to win
Arizona Diamondbacks
4.4
Predicted runs
58% to win
Projected total: 8.1 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.