Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
2026-08-04 · Progressive Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on 2026-08-04. Predicted final score: New York Mets 4.29, Cleveland Guardians 3.84. Model win probability: Cleveland Guardians 45%, New York Mets 55%. Projected total runs: 8.13.
New York Mets
4.3
Predicted runs
55% to win
Cleveland Guardians
3.8
Predicted runs
45% to win
Projected total: 8.1 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.