Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
2026-08-05 · Progressive Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on 2026-08-05. Predicted final score: New York Mets 4.27, Cleveland Guardians 4.55. Model win probability: Cleveland Guardians 54%, New York Mets 46%. Projected total runs: 8.83.
New York Mets
4.3
Predicted runs
46% to win
Cleveland Guardians
4.5
Predicted runs
54% to win
Projected total: 8.8 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.