Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
2026-07-16 · 07:10 PM ET · Citizens Bank Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on 2026-07-16. Predicted final score: New York Mets 4.22, Philadelphia Phillies 3.87. Model win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 47%, New York Mets 53%. Projected total runs: 8.09.
New York Mets
4.2
Predicted runs
53% to win
Philadelphia Phillies
3.9
Predicted runs
47% to win
Projected total: 8.1 runs
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