Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
2026-07-18 · Citizens Bank Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on 2026-07-18. Predicted final score: New York Mets 4.37, Philadelphia Phillies 4.11. Model win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 48%, New York Mets 52%. Projected total runs: 8.48.
New York Mets
4.4
Predicted runs
52% to win
Philadelphia Phillies
4.1
Predicted runs
48% to win
Projected total: 8.5 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.