Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
2026-07-19 · Citizens Bank Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on 2026-07-19. Predicted final score: New York Mets 3.84, Philadelphia Phillies 3.7. Model win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 49%, New York Mets 51%. Projected total runs: 7.53.
New York Mets
3.8
Predicted runs
51% to win
Philadelphia Phillies
3.7
Predicted runs
49% to win
Projected total: 7.5 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.