Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-08-07 · 06:40 PM ET · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-08-07. Predicted final score: New York Mets 4.7, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.34. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 47%, New York Mets 53%. Projected total runs: 9.05.
New York Mets
4.7
Predicted runs
53% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.3
Predicted runs
47% to win
Projected total: 9.1 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.