Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-08-09 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-08-09. Predicted final score: New York Mets 4.02, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.34. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 54%, New York Mets 46%. Projected total runs: 8.36.
New York Mets
4.0
Predicted runs
46% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.3
Predicted runs
54% to win
Projected total: 8.4 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.