Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
2026-04-30 · Citi Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Washington Nationals at New York Mets at Citi Field on 2026-04-30. Predicted final score: Washington Nationals 5.06, New York Mets 6.01. Model win probability: New York Mets 60%, Washington Nationals 40%. Projected total runs: 11.08.
Washington Nationals
5.1
Predicted runs
40% to win
New York Mets
6.0
Predicted runs
60% to win
Projected total: 11.1 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.