Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds
2026-05-12 · Great American Ball Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-05-12. Predicted final score: Washington Nationals 3.99, Cincinnati Reds 5.63. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 66%, Washington Nationals 34%. Projected total runs: 9.63.
Washington Nationals
4.0
Predicted runs
34% to win
Cincinnati Reds
5.6
Predicted runs
66% to win
Projected total: 9.6 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.