Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
2026-07-21 · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-07-21. Predicted final score: Baltimore Orioles 4.6, Boston Red Sox 4.67. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 52%, Baltimore Orioles 48%. Projected total runs: 9.26.
Baltimore Orioles
4.6
Predicted runs
48% to win
Boston Red Sox
4.7
Predicted runs
52% to win
Projected total: 9.3 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.