Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
2026-07-22 · 1:35 PM ET · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-07-22. Predicted final score: Baltimore Orioles 3.96, Boston Red Sox 4.05. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 52%, Baltimore Orioles 48%. Projected total runs: 8.01.
Baltimore Orioles
4.0
Predicted runs
48% to win
Boston Red Sox
4.0
Predicted runs
52% to win
Projected total: 8.0 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.