Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
2026-07-04 · 07:10 PM ET · Great American Ball Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-07-04. Predicted final score: Baltimore Orioles 4.7, Cincinnati Reds 4.13. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 46%, Baltimore Orioles 54%. Projected total runs: 8.83.
Baltimore Orioles
4.7
Predicted runs
54% to win
Cincinnati Reds
4.1
Predicted runs
46% to win
Projected total: 8.8 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.