Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals
2026-04-21 · Kauffman Stadium
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on 2026-04-21. Predicted final score: Baltimore Orioles 5.33, Kansas City Royals 5.57. Model win probability: Kansas City Royals 53%, Baltimore Orioles 47%. Projected total runs: 10.9.
Baltimore Orioles
5.3
Predicted runs
47% to win
Kansas City Royals
5.6
Predicted runs
53% to win
Projected total: 10.9 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.