Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
2026-05-04 · 07:05 PM ET · Yankee Stadium
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on 2026-05-04. Predicted final score: Baltimore Orioles 3.48, New York Yankees 5.3. Model win probability: New York Yankees 69%, Baltimore Orioles 31%. Projected total runs: 8.78.
Baltimore Orioles
3.5
Predicted runs
31% to win
New York Yankees
5.3
Predicted runs
69% to win
Projected total: 8.8 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.